There is a lot of hype and speculation around the Facebook IPO set for sometime in late 2012.
I personally think that over the next 5 years or so, Google will be a much better investment than Facebook.
First of all, I’ve read that Facebook is targeting between a 63-100 billion IPO. That is a massive market cap for a company that earns a lot less than Google.
Google Plus is growing quickly and estimated at having over 40 million users and an increase of 30% in just the past 2 days alone. It’s obviously nowhere near as big as Facebook now, but it will certainly grow in size. Google launched the product only 90 days ago and opened it up to the public just the other day. No matter what, Google Plus is going to be a real nightmare for Facebook because it’s going to take people’s eyes and time off the Facebook site.
On the flip side, Facebook doesn’t stand a chance to chip away at Google’s search business. I just can’t see that ever happening for a variety of reasons…
Overall the management team of Google is much better than Facebook’s because the team has the right combo of ingenuity, experience, and depth.
Zuck is still a young guy and a lot of people hate him for a variety of reasons. I think Facebook is worth less than 20% of Google when you factor in Gmail, Android, Search, Google Plus, Youtube, and all the business software developments along with cloud computing. Facebook’s revenues are estimated to be under 5 Billion USD for 2011 and Google’s will be over 40 Billion.
As Facebook grows, they will face legal battles. I know that will happen because it always does with this kind of company. Google has proven to know how to weather the storm but Facebook will have to deal with the transition of being a private company to the hassles of becoming a public company. It will force FB to take their eye off the ball for a while and deal with a bunch of red tape. There are so many privacy problems already and they will have to deal with them in court. It’s just a matter of time.
Google’s second quarter revenues increased 30% YOY, which is a lot considering how old, large, and established the company is.
I’m a shareholder of Google and I think the stock will jump if and when Facebook numbers disappoint. Google is quite cheap right now and I believe one of the reasons is the fear over how big Facebook could get.
I’ll be the first to admit that predicting the future of this kind of thing is impossible, but those are my honest feelings.
I’m a webmaster, website owner and developer, of many websites and I understand the importance of Google Plus. Webmasters “control” what gets popular to some extent because they are the people who write about what’s going on and get people to use buttons.
All webmasters know how important a high Google ranking is and Google Plus is a lot better for them than Facebook likes. Google has already admitted that they are factoring in the “Plus one’s” into their search algorithm. Expect to see Google Plus buttons on most websites within the next year, in addition to FB, and Twitter.
All in all, I believe that Facebook has a lot further to fall than Google and are the ones who risk being obsolete 5-10 years down the road. Google has a big head start over Facebook in pretty much all areas aside from Social networking. I think they are too strong for Zuck and his less experienced Facebook squad to handle. Google has a lot more money in the bank too. Google just paid a lot for Motorola and still have over 25 Billion. They have the ability to beat Facebook in any bidding war they may square off in for new companies.
That said, there are a lot of new and interesting things happening with the Facebook team. I always read interesting announcements and they are certainly a lot more secretive with their future plans. I could be totally wrong with this advice, but Facebook seems like a far riskier and over hyped investment. I think you’ll be happier with a buy and hold with Google.